R01063: Development of probabilistic carbon-14 and tritium models
Wednesday 11 May 2005
This research project aims to develop models which will enable the Agency to assess concentrations of carbon-14 and tritium in foods following releases into the atmosphere and to evaluate the uncertainty in these predictions.
Background
The Food Standards Agency needs to assess the concentrations of carbon-14 and tritium in foods following releases into the atmosphere, either as part of the routine releases from nuclear sites or following an accident. These concentrations are required so that the radiation exposure of consumers of these foods can be calculated. The methods currently used by the Agency do not take account of the uncertainty which accompany these estimates. The new method being developed will enable the uncertainty in the estimates of the concentrations to be calculated and taken into account in the assessment of the exposure of consumers.
Research Approach
- Conceptual models will be defined to describe the transport of carbon-14 and tritium in the food chain.
- A literature review will be carried out. This review will identify appropriate values for the parameters used in the conceptual models. The parameter values will be defined as distributions rather than as single values.
- The conceptual model will then be implemented using the AMBER probabilistic modelling tool already used by the Agency.