R01058: Communication of uncertainty with respect to communicating dose estimates in the general publich with data derived from probabilistic modelling assessments
Monday 22 August 2005
This research project is a literature review of how regulatory and other bodies communicate risk to the general public on issues of radiation dose assessment using data derived from probabilistic modelling.
Background
The uncertainties in the method and assumptions used to assess the radiation doses to consumers resulting from authorised discharges of radioactivity are not usually communicated in reports of the dose assessment. If the uncertainties are mentioned the treatment is rarely transparent. This may make it difficult for the public to gauge the risks from the discharges.
This work has been commissioned to review methods currently in use to communicate the uncertainties in dose assessments and to propose methods that the Agency may use to more effectively communicate uncertainties.
Research Approach
This research was a follow on project to R01049, (Presentation of Probabilistic Dose Estimates: A Pilot Project). It aimed to summarise a literature review on current methods used by regulators within a global context to communicating uncertainty. Its secondary aim was to assess the current theoretical under-pinning of risk communication to identify a way forward so that the Agency may more effectively, communicate risk to consumers.
Results and findings
The main conclusion of this work is that members of the public can have difficulty in interpreting information on uncertainty when it is communicated using graphical means such as pie charts or histograms. The authors found no apparent relationship between the familiarity of the graphical methods used and the ease with which the results are interpreted.
Other findings from the research included:
- The interpretation of cumulative distribution functions, even after explanation, was difficult.
- Individuals with limited or 'rusty' knowledge of statistics did not perform significantly better in interpreting displays communicating uncertainty than those who did not have this knowledge.
- Simple box plots or error bars can be as effective as more sophisticated methods.
- Individuals often confuse the mean and mode when attempting to interpret distribution functions.
- Unless information on distributions is communicated accurately the public will assume a linear interpolation between the values reported.
Dissemination information
The final report is available from the Agency's Information Centre. To obtain a copy, please contact the Enquiry Desk, Information Services, Food Standards Agency (tel: 020 7276 8181/8182 or email: infocentre@foodstandards.gsi.gov.uk)
Contact: For any enquiries concerning this research project, please contact the relevant Programme contact or email: science@foodstandards.gsi.gov.uk