R01047: Presentation of probabilistic dose estimates - a pilot project for the FSA
Wednesday 3 September 2003
This research project aims to investigate ways of presenting probabilistic dose estimate information to a non-technical audience.
Background
In assessing the food chain impact of radioactive discharges, the FSA has previously presented single estimates of potential dose. The Agency is now developing a probabilistic approach to risk assessment whereby a range of possible doses will be provided, taking account of all the uncertainties and variabilities associated with the derivation of the doses. The intention is to present this information to the public as it provides a better assessment of the range of potential doses. It would be included in the consultation process associated with nuclear site discharge authorisations and in response to public requests for information on the Agency’s assessments. This project investigated the ways of presenting this information to a non-technical audience.
Research Approach
The first step involved a review of existing research and guidelines on the presentation of probabilities, variability and uncertainty in risk-related information. This desk research was followed by a pilot trial to provide additional information on specific presentational issues of concern to the Agency. Concepts identified during the review stage were used in the trial to gain additional feedback on the existing approaches, rather than as finished examples of best practice.
Results and findings
Presenting results for particular groups of people, and identifying the characteristics of these people, helps an audience to recognise individuals within an assessment. This makes a risk estimate easier for them to appreciate by being more personal to themselves. Graphical presentations aid understanding of results, but clear and comprehensive text explanations are of at least equal, if not more, importance. In general, the public may prefer shorter, less technical presentations than NGOs, but need to be able to obtain more detailed information if they wish. The respondents to the trial considered it useful to have information on the causes of variation, uncertainty and, particularly, the management of uncertainty. It is vital to test presentations with typical members of the target audience at an early stage to identify potential misconceptions and misunderstandings.
Dissemination information
Final report is available from the FSA Library and Information centre. To obtain a copy, please contact the Enquiry Desk, Dr. Elsie Widdowson Library and Information Services, Food Standards Agency (020 7276 8181/8182 or at library&info@foodstandards.gsi.gov.uk).
Contact: David Webbe-Wood
Tel: 020 7276 8742 (Intl. +44 (0) 20 7276 8742)
Email: david.webbe-wood@foodstandards.gsi.gov.uk